AUSTIN, Texas – More than 5.6 million Texans had already cast ballots by the end of Tuesday, Oct. 27, as early voting heads into its final two days with new polls showing close races at the top of the ballot.

Through Tuesday, 5,447,391 Texans had voted early in person and 227,086 had returned mail ballots, a total of 5,674,477, according to the Texas Secretary of State. That is about 29.8% of the state’s record 19,041,684 registered voters.

At the same point in early voting, turnout was roughly 21% in 2022 and 24% in 2018, according to KERA, citing state data. Early voting ends Friday, Oct. 30, and Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3.

New poll shows a two-point Senate race

A survey from Texas Southern University’s Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center released Thursday shows Democrat James Talarico at 49% and Republican Ken Paxton at 47% in the U.S. Senate race, with Libertarian Ted Brown at 3% and 1% undecided, according to WFAA.

In the governor’s race, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott had 50% and Democrat Gina Hinojosa had 47%, with Libertarian Pat Dixon at 2%.

The survey also showed close down-ballot races, according to WFAA:

Lieutenant governor: Republican Dan Patrick 49%, Democrat Vikki Goodwin 45%
Attorney general: Republican Mayes Middleton 49%, Democrat Nathan Johnson 45%
Comptroller: Republican Don Huffines 50%, Democrat Sarah Eckhardt 44%
Railroad commissioner: Republican Bo French 47%, Democrat Jon Rosenthal 46%

TSU surveyed 2,000 likely voters by text message in English and Spanish from Oct. 21 to 25. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.19 percentage points.

A separate poll from Texas Public Opinion Research released Oct. 23 found Talarico at 51% and Paxton at 47%, and Abbott at 51% and Hinojosa at 48%. That survey of 969 likely voters was taken Oct. 15 to 18 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 points. The pollster said its final numbers pushed undecided voters to pick a candidate.

Both Senate results are close to or within the polls’ margins of error.

Analyst points to South Texas

On CNN’s Erin Burnett OutFront, Cook Political Report analyst David Wasserman said Talarico needs three things to happen to become the first Democrat to win statewide in Texas since 1994. He said Talarico needs defections from suburban Republicans, a shift back to Democrats among Hispanic voters in South Texas and low Republican turnout in rural areas.

“The only Republican candidate in a key Senate race who’s less popular than Donald Trump in the state they’re running is Ken Paxton,” Wasserman said.

President Donald Trump rallied for Paxton in Corpus Christi and Lubbock on Tuesday, while Talarico held a competing rally in Lubbock the same night.

How to vote

Early voting runs through Friday. On Election Day, polls are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Voters need one of seven accepted forms of photo ID. Polling locations and other information are available at VoteTexas.gov and from county elections offices. In Maverick County, early voting continues from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. at the Multi-Purpose Center, 480 S. Adams St.

Read our earlier coverage: Trump Rallies In Corpus Christi And Lubbock For Paxton As Talarico Holds Rival Rally

Sources: Texas Secretary of State early voting turnout | WFAA on the TSU poll, Oct. 29 | Texas Public Opinion Research October poll | KERA via KTEP | @OutFrontCNN on X